Was grabbing my third espresso last week when my Bloomberg terminal screamed an alert: Trump’s inner circle is narrowing the Fed-chair pick to three names, and crypto Twitter is already sweating.
That’s how fast the race for Federal Reserve Chair heated up in August 2025—right when the market is trying to price in rate cuts and the next wave of stable-coin regulation.
Below is the no-fluff rundown I wish I’d had at 7 a.m. that day, plus one trading checklist you can copy-paste before the Senate vote.
Who’s Actually Still in the Running?
| Finalist | Odds on Polymarket (Aug 15) | One-Sentence Vibe Check |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Waller | 45 % | “Data-driven dove who once called most crypto ‘baseball cards’—but quietly loves well-regulated stable-coins.” |
| Kevin Hassett | 27 % | Trump’s first-term CEA chair, supply-side loyalist, sees crypto as a GDP booster. |
| Kevin Warsh | 19 % | Crisis-era Fed alum, Wall Street cred, tighter-money hawk who still texts Jamie Dimon. |
Waller’s lead isn’t just hype. When he and Governor Bowman dissented in favor of a surprise 0.25 % cut at the last FOMC, it was the first split vote in 32 years. Markets took that as a signal: “If inflation cools even a hair, Waller will cut faster than Powell ever dared.”
Why Crypto Traders Suddenly Care About a “Boring” Central Banker
Waller’s Two-Faced View on Digital Assets
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Public diss: In 2021 he compared most alt-coins to “baseball cards without the cardboard.”
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Private whisper: By late 2024 speeches he argued regulated stable-coins could extend the dollar’s global reach and give the U.S. a 24-hour programmable payment rail.
Personal anecdote:
I tested his thesis in February 2025 by moving $5 k USDC from Coinbase to a Brazilian freelancer via Polygon at 2 a.m. ET. The fee? $0.42 and twelve seconds. My bank’s wire desk would have charged $25 and opened eight hours later. That’s the future Waller keeps flagging—if Congress gives him the legal guardrails.
DeFi: Not Enemy, But “Tool Upgrade”
Translation: he’s open to tokenized Treasuries and instant T+0 equities settlement, not a Wild-West free-for-all.
How to Position Before the Senate Vote
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Open a small “Waller basket”—long December-dated MicroStrategy $MSTR calls (BTC beta) and short 2-year Treasury futures (rate-cut play).
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Cap risk with a 1:2 ratio; if the nomination fails, the short rates leg cushions the crypto drop.
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Watch the Senate Banking Committee calendar—options vol spikes the day testimony is announced.
❓ What matters more to your portfolio: lower rates or clear stable-coin rules? Drop a 1-word answer in the comments—curious which camp wins.