he crypto exchange Gemini just dropped its long-awaited S-1 filing with plans to list under ticker GEMI on the Nasdaq, aiming to become only the third publicly traded U.S. crypto exchange after Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Bullish (NYSE: BULL).
But the paperwork reveals a bruising balance sheet: a $282.5 M net loss in the first half of 2025—up from $41.4 M a year earlier—and an EBITDA swing from +$32 M in 2024 to –$113.5 M today.
Below, the numbers, the narrative, and the playbook for investors, traders, and founders watching the Gemini IPO unfold.
The Loss Ledger—Where the Red Ink Comes From
| Year | Net Loss | Revenue | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | –$158.5 M | $142.2 M | –$23 M |
| 2024 | –$113.5 M (adj.) | ~$150 M | +$32 M |
| H1 2025 | –$282.5 M | TBD | –$113.5 M |
Key drivers:
- Increased compliance spend to chase state-by-state BitLicense approvals.
- Aggressive zero-fee spot trading promos that boosted volume but crushed margins.
- Staking rewards paused in New York, cutting a once-lucrative revenue stream.
Corporate Shuffle: Moonbase & the BitLicense Escape Hatch
Gemini plans to shift retail users to Moonbase Inc.—a new Florida-based entity—while Gemini Trust remains in New York.
Why it matters:
- Florida offers friendlier crypto laws and zero state income tax.
- New York’s BitLicense is still one of the toughest U.S. regulatory regimes.
- Moonbase could relaunch staking for U.S. retail—except in New York—adding an estimated $75 M annualized revenue if volume returns to 2023 levels.
The Ripple Credit Line—A $150 M Safety Net
Gemini inked a revolving credit facility with Ripple backed by the RLUSD stablecoin:
-
Initial draw: up to $75 M.
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Upsize option: $150 M on demand.
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Interest: SOFR + 350 bps (paid in RLUSD).
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Current utilization: $0—purely a liquidity backstop.
Takeaway: The line signals institutional confidence, yet zero drawdown keeps dilution off IPO-day headlines.
IPO Roadshow Cheat Sheet
| Lead Underwriters | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Cantor |
|---|---|
| Expected Float | 8–12 % of total shares (early whisper) |
| Use of Proceeds | Regulatory reserves, global expansion, potential acquisitions |
| Lock-up | 180 days for insiders (standard) |
Practical tip for retail traders:
Watch RLUSD on-chain flows—a sudden spike >$50 M could hint at an underwriter stress-test or a pre-IPO marketing stunt.
Quick Poll
Would you buy GEMI shares on day one, or wait for the post-lock-up dip? Vote “Day 1” or “Wait” in the comment section below.
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