Falcons vs Jets prediction November 30, 2025: Jets +2.5 best bet, odds, props (Hall Over 96.5), and score forecast (20-17 Falcons).
The NFL’s Week 13 slate heats up with a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets on Sunday, November 30, 2025, at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET, airing live on FOX from East Rutherford, New Jersey. Both teams enter with playoff hopes dimmed by recent struggles—the Jets winless in their last two outings and the Falcons adjusting to life without starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., sidelined for the season.
For bettors and fans eyeing this clash, the Falcons hold a slight edge as road favorites, but the Jets’ defensive strengths could flip the script. With Bijan Robinson carrying Atlanta’s run game and Breece Hall primed for New York’s offense, here’s a deep dive into predictions, key stats, and value plays to guide your picks.
Game Preview: Falcons’ Run Focus Meets Jets’ Defensive Wall
Atlanta leans heavily on the ground game, ranking 13th in run play rate, especially now without Penix’s passing threat. Kirk Cousins steps in but faces a Jets defense that ranks 12th in DVOA against the run, fresh off limiting the Ravens to just 2.9 yards per carry last week.
New York struggles through the air—bottom in pass defense—but their front seven could force Atlanta into predictable plays. Both squads rank in the bottom 10 for red-zone efficiency, suggesting a low-scoring affair where field position and turnovers decide the outcome.
Recent trends favor caution: The Jets have hit the third-quarter under in eight of their last nine home games, returning 70% ROI over 7.15 units. Atlanta’s offense, meanwhile, goes flat without explosive plays, making this a grind-it-out battle.
Current Odds and Spread Analysis
Oddsmakers list the Falcons as -140 moneyline favorites, with the Jets at +118 underdogs. The spread sits at Falcons -2.5 (-110), while the total hovers around 39.5 for over/under.
The line opened at -1.5 favoring Atlanta but moved after public money poured in on the road team. Sharp action, however, eyes value in New York’s home resilience, where they’ve covered in four of their last six as underdogs.
For totals, the under makes sense given both offenses’ red-zone woes—Atlanta converts just 48% of trips, and New York sits at 45%.
Expert Prediction: Jets Cover, But Falcons Edge It
Analyst Kenny Ducey forecasts a tight contest: Falcons 20, Jets 17. He backs the Jets +2.5 as the play, citing Atlanta’s diminished passing attack and New York’s reenergized run stop. Without Penix, Cousins must prove himself against stout fronts, a matchup where he’s averaged under 220 yards in similar spots.
The Jets’ moneyline (+118) offers excellent value for outright upset potential, especially if Hall exploits Atlanta’s 4.6 yards-per-carry allowance. Ducey sees New York’s scramble defense (highest allowed rate) forcing Cousins into errors, tilting momentum late.
Overall, expect under 39.5 total points, aligning with both teams’ inefficient scoring inside the 20.
Top Player Props and Same-Game Parlay Picks
Key props highlight individual matchups:
- Breece Hall Over 96.5 rushing + receiving yards: Jets target backs heavily (sixth-most per game), and Atlanta yields 4.6 yards per carry.
- Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 rushing yards: New York’s defense allows the league’s highest scramble rate—Cousins ran twice for 5 yards last outing.
- Kyle Pitts Over 44.5 receiving yards: Despite Jets’ bottom-five DVOA vs. tight ends, Atlanta may exploit checkdowns in the middle.
- Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 receptions: New York permits the second-fewest targets to backs (4.1 per game).
Same-game parlay recommendation: Jets +2.5, Hall Over 96.5 rush/rec yards, Cousins Over 0.5 rush yards (+300 odds). For bigger payouts, add Pitts Over 44.5 and Robinson Under 3.5 receptions.
Conclusion: Bet the Jets to Keep It Close
The Falcons vs. Jets prediction leans toward a defensive slugfest, with New York’s front seven neutralizing Atlanta’s ground attack for a narrow road win. At -2.5, the spread tempts, but Jets +2.5 stands out as the sharp play amid Cousins’ unproven matchup.
With under 39.5 as a safe total, this Week 13 tilt could deliver gritty football over fireworks.
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