How Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Helps China and Brazil

Trump’s newly announced 15% global tariff regime unintentionally lowers duties for China and Brazil, altering competitiveness in global trade and unsettling allies.

A newly introduced U.S. global tariff regime under President Donald Trump is expected to lower average import duties for China and Brazil, changing the relative competitiveness of exporters worldwide. The flat-rate tariff follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision that invalidated much of Trump’s earlier country-specific tariff program, leading to broad adjustments in import duties that alter trade dynamics.

Key Facts

• The Trump administration replaced invalidated tariffs with a 15% global flat-rate import levy.
• Brazil’s average tariff rate is set to fall by roughly 13.6 percentage points under the new regime.
• China’s average tariffs on U.S. imports are estimated to fall by about 7.1 points.
• Traditional U.S. allies such as the UK, EU and Japan will face relatively higher duties.

Main Development

After the Supreme Court struck down much of his previous tariff policy for exceeding legal authority, Trump shifted to a flat 15% tariff applicable for 150 days under alternative trade law.

Poll Shows U.S. Voters Reject Trump’s 10% Global Tariff Strategy

The new uniform rate lowers U.S. duties on imports from several countries, notably China and Brazil, compared with the previously targeted, higher tariffs that were struck down. Economists and analysts find that this unintended effect could increase the competitiveness of exporters in those countries relative to those in markets facing higher post-tariff rates.

Impact on China and Brazil

Data analysis indicates that Brazil will see the largest decline in average tariffs, enhancing price competitiveness for Brazilian exports in the U.S. market. China also stands to benefit from a reduction in duties compared with the more punitive, now invalidated, tariff structure previously envisaged by the administration.

Shifts for U.S. Allies and Trade Policy Direction

Meanwhile, exporters from U.S. allies—particularly in Europe and Japan—face comparatively higher effective duty burdens under the new flat rate. The situation reflects broader uncertainty in U.S. trade policy as the administration considers future tariff authorities and potential Section 301 investigations to address “unfair” practices without country-specific punitive rates.